The Real Story Behind India Bangladesh Relations That Nobody Talks About

India shares its longest border of 4,096.7 kilometers with Bangladesh, making india bangladesh relations one of the most significant diplomatic connections in South Asia. This extensive shared boundary, the fifth-longest in the contemporary world, underscores the deep geographical and historical ties between these neighboring nations. Despite occasional tensions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi aptly described this relationship as being in its "golden era" (Sonali Adhyay) in 2019.

The foundation of this relationship was laid during Bangladesh's liberation war of 1971, when India provided crucial support to Bangladeshi freedom fighters and later assisted in post-war reconstruction with approximately US$32 million worth of commodity assistance and US$12 million to help Bangladesh meet its foreign exchange reserves. Furthermore, the Indian Railway Board and Corps of Engineers repaired 247 bridges and restored around 1,747 miles of railway tracks. Today, Bangladesh stands as India's biggest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade reaching US$10.8 billion in 2020-21, up from US$9.5 billion in 2019-20. However, several challenges persist in this relationship, including Hindu-Muslim tensions, border management issues, and water disputes that continue to test diplomatic ties.

This article delves into the multifaceted India Bangladesh relationship, exploring its historical evolution, current challenges, economic dimensions, and potential future trajectory. By examining both the achievements and shortcomings in bilateral cooperation, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of one of South Asia's most important international partnerships.

The Foundation of India–Bangladesh Relations

The diplomatic relationship between Bangladesh and India officially began in 1971, anchoring their connection in a shared history of struggle and cooperation. This foundational period would establish patterns that continue to influence bilateral ties today.

• The 1971 Liberation War and India's Role

The seeds of India Bangladesh relations were planted during Bangladesh's liberation war. Initially referred to as East Pakistan, Bangladesh's independence movement gained momentum after Pakistani forces launched Operation Searchlight on March 25, 1971, initiating widespread violence against Bengali civilians. India provided critical military and material support to assist Bangladesh in its fight for independence. Notably, approximately 10 Million Bengali refugees fled to India, creating a humanitarian crisis that accelerated India's involvement. India formally entered the war on December 3, 1971, after Pakistan launched preemptive air strikes on Indian airfields. The conflict concluded with Pakistan's surrender in Dhaka on December 16, 1971, marking one of the largest military surrenders since World War II.

• Early Treaties and Cooperation (1972–1975)

Following liberation, India became one of the first countries to recognize Bangladesh as a sovereign state on December 6, 1971. Subsequently, the two nations signed the Indo-Bangladesh Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace on March 19, 1972. This 25-year treaty, also known as the Indira-Mujib Treaty, covered economic, security, and military cooperation. The agreement specified that neither country would enter into military alliances against each other. Although initially welcomed by both nations, the treaty eventually became a subject of controversy in Bangladesh, where many viewed it as unequal and imposing excessive Indian influence.

• Setbacks During Military Rule in Bangladesh

The assassination of Sheik Mujibur Rahman in 1975 transformed the dynamics of India Bangladesh relationship. From the mid-1970s, relations deteriorated as Bangladesh developed closer ties with Muslim nations and participated in the Organization of the Islamic Conference. The military regimes that succeeded Mujib pursued a foreign policy primarily focused on distancing from India. Additionally, this period saw increased emphasis on Islamic identity over Bangladesh's ethnolinguistic roots, further complicating bilateral relations.

• The 1996 Ganges Water Treaty and Transit Talks

Bilateral ties improved significantly after Sheik Hasina came to power in 1996. The historic Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, signed that year, addressed the longstanding dispute over the Farakka Barrage. The treaty established a formula for dividing the flow during the crucial dry season from January to May. Simultaneously, transit talks for Indian trade through Bangladesh began to take shape, potentially benefiting both countries through reduced transport costs and improved port utilization. This period marked a new chapter in diplomatic relations after decades of instability and mutual suspicion.

Current Challenges in Bilateral Ties

Despite deepening cooperation in certain areas, unresolved disputes continue to strain India Bangladesh relations. These challenges, ranging from migration issues to water disputes, require careful diplomatic navigation.

• Border Killings and Security Concerns

The 4,096-kilometer border between India and Bangladesh has been a focal point of concern, with ongoing challenges related to security and cross-border activities. According to reports from various organizations, there have been incidents resulting in casualties and injuries involving individuals from Bangladesh. However, it is essential to note that India has been proactive in enhancing security measures along this border, particularly in response to intelligence warnings regarding potential terror threats, including those posed by groups like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). The difficult terrain and porous nature of the border have unfortunately fostered conditions that facilitate smuggling and trafficking. India remains committed to safeguarding its borders and ensuring the safety of its citizens while also addressing the complexities of cross-border relations.

• Teesta Water Dispute and River Management

The Teesta water-sharing issue continues to be a significant point of contention between India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh seeks 50% of the river's water during the crucial December-March dry season. However, a 2011 agreement that proposed allocating 37.5% of the river's flow to Bangladesh has faced delays, primarily due to resistance from the West Bengal government. With 83% of the Teesta's catchment area located within India and only 17% in Bangladesh, this dispute highlights the broader challenges in effectively managing the 54 rivers that traverse the Indo-Bangladeshi border.

• Rise of Radicalism and Political Polarization

In 2024, Bangladesh faces a growing threat of radicalism fueled by political instability and security vacuums. Extremist groups like Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Islamic State-Khorasan (ISK) have exploited this turmoil to promote radical ideologies. Consequently, India is witnessing increased vulnerability along its borders, with Pakistani-backed terrorist outfits attempting to revive connections with Bangladesh-based radical groups.

Economic and Strategic Dimensions

The economic interdependence between India and Bangladesh forms a cornerstone of their bilateral relationship, characterized by both promising developments and persistent imbalances.

• India–Bangladesh Trade Relations: Progress & Imbalance

Bangladesh is an important trading partner for India in South Asia, reflecting the strong economic ties between the two nations. In FY 2023-24, the bilateral trade volume reached an impressive USD 14.01 billion, following a peak of USD 15.9 billion in FY 2022-23. This robust trade relationship underscores India's role as a key player in the region's economic landscape. While there is a trade imbalance, with Bangladesh reporting a trade deficit of INR 776.30 billion with India in FY 2024, it is essential to recognize the diverse range of commodities exchanged. India exported 5,620 products to Bangladesh in FY 2024, including significant quantities of cotton (valued at INR 128.26 billion), mineral fuels (INR 98.73 billion), and vehicles. In contrast, Bangladesh's exports to India, primarily consisting of apparel and textile products, amounted to around USD 2 billion. This dynamic trade relationship presents opportunities for further collaboration and growth in the region.

• Connectivity Projects and Energy Cooperation

Energy cooperation has emerged as a vital pillar of India Bangladesh relations. Currently, Bangladesh imports 1,160 MW of power from India, with several landmark projects strengthening this partnership. The Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant, India's first overseas capacity addition, and the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline for High-Speed Diesel, inaugurated in March 2023, exemplify this collaboration. Moreover, connectivity projects like the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and Khulna-Mongla port rail line have enhanced cross-border movement and trade potential.

• China's Growing Influence in Bangladesh

China's diplomatic engagement with Bangladesh has intensified considerably, with trade volume increasing from INR 1012.57 Billion in 2018 to approximately INR 2109.51 Billion by 2024. China accounts for approximately 72% of Bangladesh's military hardware imports between 2019-2023, including submarines and anti-ship missiles. Additionally, Chinese investments in major infrastructure projects following Bangladesh's joining of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2016 have raised strategic concerns for India, particularly regarding naval infrastructure like the BNS Sheik Hasina Submarine Base.

• Concerns Over Investment and Local Industry Impact

Indian companies with significant operations in Bangladesh face potential disruptions amid political uncertainties. Firms like Marico, which derives 11% of its total revenue from Bangladesh, and Hero MotoCorp, with 2-3% of total sales from its Jessore manufacturing unit, remain vulnerable to political instability. Conversely, Bangladesh's manufacturing sector, particularly textiles, views Chinese investments as both opportunity and threat, potentially impacting India's cotton exports, which constitute 34.9% of India's total cotton exports.

• Policy Gaps and Missed Opportunities

Beyond the diplomatic rhetoric, substantial gaps persist in actualizing the full potential of India Bangladesh relations. These institutional and implementation shortcomings continually undermine bilateral progress.

• Delayed Implementation of Agreements

The implementation of India's Line of Credit (LoC) projects in Bangladesh faces significant delays due to lengthy approval processes, mandatory Indian consultancy, and multiple layers of approval from India's Exim Bank, resulting in Bangladesh dropping 11 projects. Additionally, the LoC's structure imposes financial strain as grace periods commence with the first disbursement, irrespective of project completion. Similarly, the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972 to manage the shared waters of 54 rivers, has proven ineffective, with only one water-sharing agreement—the Ganges Treaty—signed over two decades ago. The JRC has devolved into a mere consultation platform, lacking executive power, with mandated meetings often occurring after several years.

• Lack of People-to-People Engagement

Recent political uncertainties have disrupted people-to-people connectivity. Suspensions of public transport and visa complications have reduced cross-border cultural and social exchanges. Likewise, medical tourism and educational contacts have declined, weakening grassroots bilateral relations. India's inability to engage with a broader spectrum of political and social actors in Bangladesh has ultimately hurt the relationship.

• Underutilized Regional Platforms like BBIN and BIMSTEC

Regional initiatives remain underutilized amid implementation challenges. The BIMSTEC Free Trade Area, initiated in 2004, remains unimplemented after two decades. Similarly, the BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement faces obstacles due to political differences and implementation gaps. Both platforms suffer from underfunded secretariats, consensus-based decision-making hurdles, and lack of dedicated financial mechanisms.

Conclusion

The India-Bangladesh relationship stands as one of South Asia's most consequential diplomatic partnerships, built on a foundation of shared history and mutual respect, particularly highlighted during the 1971 Liberation War. While Prime Minister Modi's assertion of a "golden era" in this relationship reflects significant progress in trade, connectivity, and energy cooperation, it is crucial to remain vigilant against external influences that threaten regional stability.

Despite the advancements, substantial challenges persist. Issues such as border security, illegal migration, and unresolved water disputes—especially concerning the Teesta River—continue to be pressing concerns. The growing trade imbalance, which heavily favors India, should be leveraged to foster economic cooperation, rather than friction, as bilateral trade volumes have impressively reached US$14.01 billion.

However, the most pressing challenge arises from China's increasing encroachment in Bangladesh through aggressive infrastructure investments and military sales. China's influence has surged, with trade volume doubling since 2018 and military hardware sales constituting a staggering 72% of Bangladesh's imports from 2019 to 2023. This growing alliance poses a strategic threat to India's national security and regional influence, necessitating a robust response from India.

Looking ahead, it is imperative for both nations to address these structural issues while also countering external pressures. Effective management of shared rivers, resolution of border concerns, and reduction of trade imbalances could transform this relationship from one of necessity into a genuine strategic partnership. Despite the formidable challenges posed by external actors, the geographical reality of sharing a 4,096-kilometer border compels India and Bangladesh to seek pathways toward cooperation. Their shared future hinges on navigating these waters with diplomatic skill, political will, and a united front against any encroachment that threatens their sovereignty and regional stability.

Key Takeaways

India and Bangladesh share one of South Asia's most complex diplomatic relationships, built on historical bonds but challenged by persistent disputes and strategic competition.

• Historical foundation remains strong: India's crucial support during Bangladesh's 1971 liberation war created lasting diplomatic ties, though military rule periods caused significant setbacks in bilateral relations.

• Economic interdependence grows despite imbalance: Bilateral trade reached $14.01 billion in 2023-24, making Bangladesh India's largest South Asian partner, but massive trade deficit favoring India creates friction.

• Unresolved disputes strain relations: Border killings (1,236 Bangladeshis killed 2000-2020), Teesta water sharing disagreements, and illegal migration concerns continue to test diplomatic ties.

• China's growing influence poses strategic challenge: Chinese trade with Bangladesh doubled since 2018, accounting for 72% of military imports, creating competitive pressure on India's regional dominance.

• Implementation gaps undermine potential: Delayed project execution, weak institutional mechanisms like Joint Rivers Commission, and underutilized regional platforms prevent deeper bilateral integration.

Despite Modi's "golden era" characterization, both nations must address structural issues including water disputes, border management, and trade imbalances to transform their relationship from necessity-driven cooperation to genuine strategic partnership.